Odaily Exclusive: Polymarket Opens Store in New York, Kalshi Gives Away $50 Supermarket Vouchers — Are Prediction Markets Also Handing Out Eggs?

Author｜Wenser (@웬서 2010)

“Each generation has its own eggs to claim,” and the weight of this statement continues to grow!

This time, the battle for eggs is being stirred up by the duopoly of the prediction market—Kalshi and Polymarket.

To capture more attention ahead of the “American Super Bowl,” the two platforms have recently launched their own “ground promotion performances.” Kalshi is offering users $50 worth of free groceries at a supermarket in New York, while Polymarket is going even further by launching New York’s “first free grocery store,” which it has been preparing for months and plans to officially open on February 12. In the competition for attention and user growth, these prediction market giants, valued at tens of billions of dollars, have chosen the most old-fashioned but effective route: offline ground promotions.

Regarding this matter, we immediately contacted Odaily’s New York-based colleague Connie to get the latest updates on “Kalshi and Polymarket’s offline promotions” and real information such as “how much can $50 actually buy in New York City,” which we are sharing with our readers.

When Prediction 시장 Giants Engage in Ground Promotions: Kalshi’s Pop-up vs. Polymarket’s “Instant Store”

As one of America’s top metropolises, New York has become a battleground and focal point for the two prediction market giants, Kalshi and Polymarket.

Addressing the increasingly prominent issue of rising living costs in New York and across the U.S., both Kalshi and Polymarket have rolled out major initiatives—

On February 3, Kalshi offered [limited-time] $50 worth of free groceries to select users at the Westside Market on 84 Third Avenue in New York, aiming to attract more users to participate in various real-world event predictions on its platform.

Judging from the surrounding “flyers,” “supermarket KT boards,” and other promotional materials, Kalshi’s offline promotion resembles an impromptu “pop-up event.” It involves collaborating with a local supermarket to deploy offline materials for a short period, using the “bait” of “$50 worth of free groceries” to attract people to queue up, participate, and gather on-site. This has been verified and confirmed by Connie.

Furthermore, it’s evident that through this pop-up event, Kalshi hopes to attract more people to join the prediction market by betting on everyday, low-barrier, easy-to-understand questions like “Will New York City’s gas price exceed $3.3 this year?” This strategy aims to achieve business goals such as brand marketing, user activation, and new user acquisition.

Kalshi’s co-branded pop-up supermarket eggs were snapped up

Compared to Kalshi’s somewhat crude and highly commercialized approach, Polymarket’s preparations appear much more thorough.

On February 3, slightly earlier than Kalshi’s official announcement, Polymarket 발표 that after months of offline preparation, it plans to open “New York’s first free grocery store” on February 12 (EST) by leasing a physical storefront. Additionally, Polymarket donated $1 million to the New York City Food Bank to address the region’s “hunger issue.”

Polymarket also released real photos of distributing vegetables like tomatoes and eggplants offline, instantly reminiscent of the era of domestic internet platform ground promotions, evoking a strong sense of “download the app to get eggs” or “first recharge to get a new user gift package.”

It’s worth noting that Polymarket not only emphasized that “Polymarket’s offline store is well-stocked, no purchase necessary” but also called on people in its tweet to donate to the New York City Food Bank, encouraging practical actions to address the real “hunger issue” caused by high food costs and persistently high living expenses.

Seeing this scene, I couldn’t help but sigh—

Fake 암호화폐 project ground promotions: Host offline conferences, feast on seafood, hype various fake concept tokens;

Real crypto project ground promotions: Give away vegetables, give away eggs, open offline stores offering free food, engage in charity and public welfare, call on people to donate and show compassion.

Regarding the real purchasing power of Kalshi and Polymarket’s “egg collection activities,” we also had a detailed discussion with Connie, Odaily’s correspondent in New York.

The Real Purchasing Power of $50 in New York City: 5 McDonald’s Meals, 1.5 lbs of 벌f, or 2 Days of Food for an Average Person

According to Connie, the real purchasing power of $50 in New York City can indeed be considered “quite valuable.”

“Buying a 0.5 lb (approximately 0.45 kg) portion of beef at a local New York supermarket costs about $18, so $50 could buy about 1.5 lbs of beef,” which is sufficient for an adult’s protein intake across three meals a day. For comparison, the price of one pound of beef in China is only around 30 RMB, which is only about 1/8th of the cost in New York City.

Converting to the well-known “Big Mac Index,” the real purchasing power of $50 is also quite astonishing—a cheeseburger meal delivery with 800-1000 calories costs about $10.89, so $50 could buy about 5 meals. If buying a double cheeseburger with 580 calories, it only costs around $7.20. Of course, this price would be considered “exorbitant” in China, where a similar burger meal costs only 25-40 RMB, which is about half the price of the same food in New York City.

In other words, spending frugally, $50 is close to covering an average person’s food costs for about 2 days in New York (calculated as 5-6 meals). According to Connie, Kalshi’s event attracted many Americans to queue up for ‘free food,’ and ‘Americans’ enthusiasm for queuing for free stuff is even higher than that of Chinese people.’ Polymarket’s “offline free grocery store” is also expected to attract a large crowd. Based on the existing information released by Kalshi and Polymarket, the hard costs for the two platforms’ related activities are likely at least $50,000 to $100,000.

Beyond charity and goodwill, Kalshi and Polymarket, having invested so much manpower and resources, also have their own “calculations.”

The “Business Logic” Behind Prediction Market Platforms “Giving Away Eggs”: Influencing Institutional Regulation Through Political Issues

Both Kalshi and Polymarket’s food donation activities were conducted without coordination or communication with the New York City government; they were spontaneous corporate actions.

However, the wording and stated purposes of their public statements bear a striking resemblance to the “policies” repeatedly emphasized by New York’s new mayor, Zohran Mamdani, during his campaign. The latter proposed “opening publicly-owned grocery stores in New York’s five boroughs to lower food prices.” Zohran Mamdani pointed out that city-owned grocery stores could reduce rent and operational costs through non-profit operation models and the use of public property. This proposal is currently still in the pilot stage, with no final implementation timeline determined.

On another front, as one of America’s key states, New York’s legislators are actively drafting new bills targeting the emerging prediction market industry. Among them, the “ORACLE Act” plans to restrict or prohibit New York residents from betting on certain prediction market events and impose stricter limitations on event-based prediction markets. Another piece of legislation plans to require prediction market operators to obtain a state-issued license before operating.

It’s evident that some legislative decision-makers still harbor various concerns about prediction markets, viewing them as akin to unregulated gambling or as being more susceptible to insider manipulation.

In light of this, although the New York City mayor does not have direct jurisdiction over prediction market regulation (Odaily Note: Regulatory authority over prediction market platforms belongs to state and federal governments), Kalshi and Polymarket’s actions might also be an attempt to seek regulatory friendliness through indirect means.

Finally, regardless of the ultimate impact of their “egg-giving” actions, we must say that China’s internet promotion models are at least 5-10 years ahead of the Western world.

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