Tariffs, employment, and interest rate cut expectations pushed BTC up 9.08%, hitting a record high (07.07~07.13)

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BTC price trend daily

This week, BTC opened at $109,217.98 and closed at $119,130.81, up 9.08%, with a high of $119,500 and a low of $105,119.70, an amplitude of 11.04%, and trading volume increased moderately.

In last week’s weekly report, we mentioned that “some positive changes are also taking place. After being silent for more than a month, the activity of on-site funds has begun to increase. This increase may resonate with off-site funds and push BTC to start the fourth wave of this bull market.” This week, the strong buying power resonance between on-site funds and off-site funds in the BTC Spot ETF channel was realized, pushing BTC to a record high this week.

At the same time, uncertainty in expectations for interest rate cuts caused by the chaos of the reciprocal tariff war and unexpected job market information has suddenly increased, which deserves close attention.

Policy, macro-finance and economic data

The tariff war and US employment data are the main factors affecting the market this week.

On July 10, Trump announced that a 35% unified tariff would be imposed on all Canadian imports starting August 1. On July 12, Trump demanded that the market be opened up and that a 30% tariff would be imposed on Mexico and the European Union if no agreement was reached before August 1. Prior to this, the United States had sent letters to Japan and South Korea to set the tariff rate at 25%.

In addition, on July 12, Trump also sent a unified letter to the other 23 countries, listing tariff rates of 20-50%, but each country can reduce them through negotiation before August 1.

Currently, the tariff rates issued against major trading countries exceed market expectations. At the same time, the $3.4 trillion Big Beautiful Bill tax reform and spending bill has entered the deep review stage in the Senate. The US 디파이cit rate may reach 9% in fiscal year 2026. The double-edged combination of fiscal expansion and tariff inflation has caused the market to reassess the risk of stagflation. Affected by the resonance of policy uncertainty and robust data, the US dollar index rose by about 0.8% on a weekly basis. Long-term concerns have not yet had a significant impact on the market, but they are accumulating.

Data from the Labor Department showed that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to 227,000 in the week ending July 5, a seven-week low, far better than the market forecast of 235,000; the strong data led traders to once again postpone their bets on the first rate cut in September. By the weekend, FedWatch data showed that the probability of a rate cut in July fell to 5.2%, and the probability of a rate cut in September fell to 60.4%.

On July 2, Fed Chairman Powell emphasized at the ECB Sintra Forum that a rate cut in July was possible but not officially supported, and that the second-round impact of tariffs on inflation remained uncertain. The Fed is internally split, with several officials surrendering to rate cuts. This week, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency suddenly broke the news that Powell might resign.

There are signs that the conflict between Trump and Powell over interest rate cuts is deepening. However, the key point is whether tariffs will lead to a significant increase in inflation, which will directly affect the interest rate cut in September. US stocks and BTC have already completed the pricing of the September interest rate cut. If there is a clear upward signal of inflation, the market will be under pressure, and there will be a high probability of a certain degree of downward pricing, but it will not change the market trend.

암호화폐 시장

The uncertainty of the macro market has caused the US stock market to hover near its historical highs, and the three major valuations have closed slightly lower. However, benefiting from the dual resonance of large inflows of funds on and off the market, BTC rose 9.08% this week, setting a record high.

From a technical perspective, the biggest achievement of BTC this week is to break through the Trump bottom established since November last year, that is, the 90,000-110,000 US dollar range. BTC has been fluctuating in this range for 8 months, which is the third largest consolidation platform in this bull market cycle. More than 30% of BTC moves on the chain in this range.

This range is a major breakthrough in the establishment of BTC and 암호화폐 assets as strategic reserve assets in the United States since Trump took office, which is of great significance. It also means that the large-scale institutional adoption of BTC by US public companies has been triggered by the inclusion of BTC in the treasury. We believe that this range will be a very important new starting point.

The breakthrough of this range means that BTC has officially started the fourth wave of this bull market. In the June monthly report, we mentioned that, like the past three waves, this round of rise is likely to be completed in a short period of time. This short period of time may be two or three months, which is worth paying close attention to.

BTC broke through the Trump bottom that had been oscillating for 8 months, and also activated the long-term willingness of other crypto assets including ETH, and the market ushered in a general rise.

Funds In and Out

With the tariff war resurfacing, the global macro environment is once again facing a test, but strong capital inflows both on and off the market have pushed BTC to significantly outperform the Nasdaq this week, breaking through the Trump bottom in one fell swoop.

This week, the stablecoin and BTC Spot ETF channels totaled $5.886 billion, of which the stablecoin channel received $2.177 billion and the BTC Spot ETF channel received $2.780 billion. In addition, the ETH Spot ETF channel also received $929 million, setting a record for the single-week inflow of this type of ETF since its establishment.

Stablecoin and BTC ETH Spot ETF fund flow statistics (weekly)

In addition, enterprise-level procurement is also accelerating.

The consensus on Q3 market trend is getting stronger and stronger. The strong capital inflow will not change the trend in the short term, and the market has regained its bullish momentum.

Selling pressure and selling

Since July, as BTC has approached its all-time high again, long-term investors have started to reduce their holdings in small amounts. This week, BTC broke its all-time high, and long-term investors officially started reducing their holdings, but the amount of reduction was only more than 10,000.

The scale of long and short selling has increased compared with last week, but the main selling pressure comes from short-term traders. Currently, the short-term floating profit is about 18%, and the selling force has begun to gradually increase, but it is still limited. The buying power is surging, and the exchange as a whole is still showing an outflow trend.

We have mentioned many times that the reduction of long-term holdings marks the arrival of a new round of liquidity. The expectation of interest rate cuts in September remains unchanged, and the willingness of forward-looking trading funds to price upward is very strong. This is also the reason why we are cautiously optimistic about the trend of BTC in Q3.

사이클 지표

According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.625 and is in an upward period.

EMC Labs

EMC Labs는 2023년 4월 암호화폐 자산 투자자와 데이터 과학자에 의해 설립되었습니다. EMC Labs는 블록체인 산업 연구 및 암호화폐 2차 시장 투자에 중점을 두고 업계 예측, 통찰력 및 데이터 마이닝을 핵심 경쟁력으로 삼고 급성장하는 블록체인 산업에 참여하기 위해 최선을 다하고 있습니다. 연구와 투자를 통해 블록체인과 암호화폐 자산을 홍보하여 인류에게 이익을 가져다줍니다.

자세한 내용은 https://www.emc.fund에서 확인하세요.

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