The life and death situation of the crypto market in 2025: regulatory dividends, technological revolution and trillion-d

1. Regulatory dividends: global policy shift and geopolitical games

1. The rise of the American “暗号-utopia”

Policy relaxation: The Trump administration promotes the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Program and abolishes the SAB 121 clause that restricts banks from custodial crypto assets. The new SEC Chairman Paul Atkins proposes ガイドd regulation to clarify the securities attributes of tokens and explore compliance paths.

Institutional entry: Bitcoin ETF managed assets exceeded 1.1 million BTC (BlackRock IBIT accounts for 45%), traditional financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase accelerated their layout, and CME launched Solana futures contracts to consolidate pricing power.

Risks are surging: The U.S. national debt has exceeded 36 trillion U.S. dollars, and the debt rating is at risk of being downgraded. If the U.S. debt crisis triggers a liquidity crunch, the crypto market may collapse simultaneously.

2. Defensive strategies for China and emerging markets

Financial security threats: Chen Yulu, former deputy governor of the Peoples Bank of China, pointed out that the global expansion of US dollar stablecoins and Bitcoin has squeezed the internationalization space of the RMB, and DeFi regulatory arbitrage has weakened domestic technological competitiveness.

Competition for technical standards: The United States dominates areas such as ZKP and Layer 2. The EU integrates supervision through the MiCA framework. China faces pressure from blockchain companies to relocate and needs to be wary of losing the right to set standards.

3. Regulatory arbitrage and global coordination

Game under the G20 framework: Countries are accelerating the formulation of digital asset rules, the United States is trying to incorporate cryptocurrencies into the financial hegemony system, and China is fighting the dominance of the US dollar through the digital RMB.

2. Technological Revolution: Layer Wars, AI Integration, and the Rise of DePIN

1. Ethereum Renaissance and Layer 2 Competition

Pectra Upgrade: Ethereum optimizes account abstraction, L2 compatibility and staking mechanism, aiming to reduce gas fees and improve security. The staking rate is expected to exceed 50%, and the TVL may reach US$300 billion.

The public chain landscape is differentiated: Base chain (Coinback ecosystem) TVL exceeds 40 billion US dollars, Solana achieves 100,000 TPS through the Firedancer client, and Sui and HyperLiquid seize the market segment with modular architecture.

2. AI+Blockchain: From 道具s to Autonomous Participants

On-chain AI agents: NEAR co-founder predicts that by 2025, AI agents will manage crypto wallets, execute trading strategies, and even become KOLs on social platforms. VanEck data shows that their number will exceed 1 million.

Technology integration bottleneck: The high cost of AI model training, algorithm transparency disputes and regulatory review may limit large-scale application.

3. DePIN: The Industrial Revolution of Decentralized Infrastructure

Case breakthrough: Hivemapper has mapped 30% of the worlds roads through 150,000 contributors, with annual revenue exceeding US$500 million; the Filecoin Foundation promotes the combination of AI and DePIN to solve the bottlenecks of data storage and computing power.

3. Trillion-dollar game: the struggle between institutions, retail investors and stablecoins

1. The trend of “de-retailization” led by institutions

Bitcoin ETF siphon effect: BlackRock IBITs management scale has exceeded US$40 billion. Pension funds and sovereign wealth funds have entered the market, promoting the narrative of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, but 80% of holdings are still controlled by retail investors.

RWA tokenization exploded: Ondo Finance tokenized US Treasury bonds worth US$2.8 billion, with an annualized return of 4.44%; Maple Finance issued loans of US$2.46 billion, attracting Grayscale and Pantera to increase their holdings.

2. Stablecoins: a tool for payment revolution and US dollar hegemony

The market size has jumped: the market value of stablecoins has reached 193 billion US dollars, and may exceed 3 trillion US dollars within five years. The cost of cross-border payments has been reduced by 60%, but the controversy over Tethers reserve transparency has become a potential black swan.

Geopolitical weaponization: The United States consolidates its global reserve status through the dollar stablecoin, and the seizure of Russian crypto assets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict highlights the threat of digital financial hegemony.

Regulatory crackdown warning: The U.S. Congress is discussing legislation to restrict politicians issuing coins, which if passed may trigger a sector avalanche.

4. Future Path: Reshaping Industry Value Between Enthusiasm and Rationality

1. Investor strategy: Balancing defense and offense

Core configuration: Bitcoin (40%) + Ethereum (20%) + RWA leader (such as ONDO, 20%), long-term target Bitcoin $180,000, Ethereum $8,000.

Risk hedging: keep 30% stablecoins (USDC/DAI) and buy Bitcoin put options (strike price $75,000).

2. Industry survival rules

Get rid of policy dependence: Trump’s promise fulfillment rate is only 31%, and it is necessary to shift from regulatory arbitrage to the intrinsic value of technology, such as connecting DeFi protocols to traditional financial infrastructure.

Technological innovation takes priority: The implementation capabilities of Ethereum Layer 2, AI agents, and DePIN will determine long-term competitiveness and avoid the bubble of homogeneous public chains.

3. Prediction of the global situation

The confrontation between China and the United States escalates: the United States crypto hegemony squeezes Chinas digital financial space, while China counterattacks through the digital RMB and independent blockchain technology.

Competition for technical standards: ZKP, Layer 2 and other underlying technologies have become strategic high ground, and the EU MiCA framework may give rise to new barriers.

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