Metrics Ventures Market Watch: The Long Winter Night for Altcoins and the Momentum Vacuum for US Dollar Assets

Metrics Ventures’ June 市场 Observation

1. Following our views in May, the prices of Bitcoin and global risk assets rose further in May. Bitcoin once again set a new historical high. This time the new high was unknown, which had a lot to do with the markets wind bias and news trading fatigue, which also provided a basis for further increases in the future.

2. Bitcoin and global risk assets have simultaneously entered a momentum vacuum period with a lack of new trading events. They are no longer sensitive to event stimuli and the impact of macro events. The entire market has entered a state of waiting for the next narrative (expected to be a unified adjustment of the interest rate cut path).

3. The winter night of altcoins has completely entered the deep night after a round of emotional ups and downs. Both trading volume and volatility are no longer there. It can be foreseen that in the medium term, new funds will find it difficult to come to CEX to liberate the chips that teachers are deeply trapped after observing options such as SBET CIRCLE. The painful liquidation of chips will emerge in an endless stream in numbness.

对整体市场情况和市场趋势的回顾和评论

In the past month, the market has experienced a cooling process with gradually weakening momentum. After Bitcoin reached a new high, the market, especially the traditional 加密货币currency market, was cold, which further confirmed the reality shown by the on-chain data: the old cryptocurrency players have sold their Bitcoin in batches in the past two rounds of chip exchanges. The event momentum accumulated under the extreme market conditions in April was also released in the Bitcoin price. The entire US dollar market entered a vacuum period of lack of momentum, and volatility and trading volume converged rapidly.

As for the price of Bitcoin, we think it is too early to worry about the peak. In fact, the entire US dollar asset market has become fatigued by the event stimulus and the existing macro narrative. We expect that the next unified trading stimulus and narrative will be the rapid formation of consensus on the path of interest rate cuts. Global liquidity has been at a new high for a long time, and the support for asset prices will not disappear in the medium term.

What may be more important this month is that after a round of rapid rise, we have seen the clear evidence of the transfer of funds flow path from traditional CEX to Nasdaq that has been reported since March. The price behavior and lack of market depth that investors feel can be abstracted as the collapse of trading volume. Data from a friendly company show that the contract trading volume of CEX has recently fallen to the level of 2020.

When we see ETH sentiment rising, the best performing assets in the market have also turned to listed companies such as SBET, and are no longer the LDO OP of a few years ago. In addition to linking with listed shell companies, altcoins may only be able to wait quietly for several years for the chips to be cleared and continue to pray for the gift of fate.

Finally, regarding ETH, our previous view that ETH benefits from the dual support of regulatory relaxation and liquidity remains unchanged, and we completed our trading bet in May. After ETH stabilizes on the annual line and the exchange rate breaks through the current consolidation state, it is expected that there will be new trading opportunities. Let us encourage each other.

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Metrics Ventures 是一家数据和研究驱动的加密资产二级市场流动性基金，由经验丰富的加密专业人士团队领导。团队擅长一级市场孵化和二级市场交易，并通过深入的链上/链下数据分析积极推动行业发展。MVC 与加密社区的资深影响者合作，为项目提供长期赋能支持，如媒体和 KOL 资源、生态合作资源、项目策略、经济模型咨询能力等。

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