Bitcoin cycle speculation: Who is driving the rise and fall? At what historical juncture are we standing?

原文作者： 比特币杂志专业版

原文翻译：白话区块链

Bitcoin did not get off to the explosive start that many had expected in 2025. After breaking through $100,000, there was a sharp correction, and investors and analysts began to question where we are in the overall cycle of Bitcoin.

This article will cut through the market noise and analyze a series of key on-chain data and macro indicators in depth to assess whether Bitcoin鈥檚 bull run is still intact or if it is facing a deeper correction.

Healthy correction or end of cycle?

A good place to start is the MVRV-Z score, a long-used valuation metric that compares market value to realized value. After peaking at about 3.36, the MVRV-Z score has fallen to about 1.43, coinciding with Bitcoin鈥檚 fall from over $100,000 to a low of $75,000. At first glance, this 30% pullback seems severe.

Figure 1: The MVRV Z-score has recently rebounded from the 2025 low of 1.43.

Historically, periods comparable to current MVRV-Z score levels have tended to mark local bottoms rather than tops. Previous cycles, including 2017 and 2021, saw similar pullbacks followed by price gains. In short, while this decline has shaken investor confidence, it is consistent with historic pullbacks during bull markets.

Follow the smart money

Another key metric is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) multiple. This metric measures how fast Bitcoin is moving and is weighted by how long coins have been held. Peaks in the VDD multiple typically indicate sophisticated holders taking profits, while low levels suggest accumulation.

Currently, the indicator is in the low green zone, similar to the levels seen in the late bear market or early recovery phase. Given the sharp reversal from above $100,000, we may be witnessing the end of a wave of profit-taking, with signs of long-term accumulation reappearing, signaling expectations for higher prices.

Figure 2: Current VDD multiples suggest long-term holders are in an accumulation phase.

The Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart is one of the most insightful charts in on-chain data, breaking down capital flows by coin age. It distinguishes between different groups, such as new market participants (holding less than 1 month) and medium-term holders (1-2 years), to observe capital migration. At the peak of Bitcoin price at $106,000, the red band (new holders) saw a surge in activity, indicating FOMO-driven buyers flocking in near the top. Since then, activity in this group has cooled significantly, returning to levels consistent with the early to mid-stage of the bull market.

Conversely, the 1-2 year holder group (typically macro-aware accumulators) is beginning to rise again. This inverse correlation is key: long-term holders accumulate at market lows, while newer participants capitulate or exit at lows. These dynamics are similar to the accumulation-distribution patterns of earlier bull cycles, particularly 2020 and 2021.

Figure 3: Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart Shows Bitcoin Flowing to More Experienced Holders

What stage are we in now?

From a macro perspective, we divide the Bitcoin market cycle into three key stages:

• Bear market stage: deep correction (70-90%)

• Recovery phase: Recover previous high

• Bullish/Exponential Phase: Parabolic Rise after Breaking the Previous High

The bear markets in 2015 and 2018 lasted about 13-14 months. Our most recent bear cycle also lasted 14 months. The recovery phase of past cycles lasted about 23-26 months, and our current cycle is within that window.

Figure 4: Estimating potential bull market peaks using past cycle trends

However, this bull phase is somewhat unusual. After breaking the all-time high, prices did not immediately surge higher, but instead pulled back. This could indicate that we are simply forming a higher low before entering the steeper part of the exponential phase. If we take the average of the 9-month and 11-month exponential phases of the past cycles, we expect the bull market to peak around September 2025, assuming the bull phase resumes.

Macro risks

Despite encouraging on-chain data, macro headwinds remain. SP 500 and Bitcoin correlation chart analysis shows that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the U.S. stock market. As concerns about a global recession grow, continued weakness in traditional markets could limit Bitcoins ability to rise in the short term.

Figure 5: Bitcoin鈥檚 correlation with the US stock market

概括

As we can see in our analysis, key on-chain indicators such as MVRV Z-scores, Value Days Destroyed, and Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flows show healthy and cycle-consistent behavior, as well as signs of accumulation by long-term holders. However, there remains significant macro uncertainty in the market, which is a key risk to watch.

This cycle is slower and more uneven than past ones, but it has not broken the historical structure. If further deterioration in traditional markets can be avoided, Bitcoin appears ready for the next leg up, which could peak in the third or early fourth quarter.

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