Metrics Ventures Market Watch: The Long Winter Night for Altcoins and the Momentum Vacuum for US Dollar Assets

Metrics Ventures’ June 市場 Observation

1. Following our views in May, the prices of Bitcoin and global risk assets rose further in May. Bitcoin once again set a new historical high. This time the new high was unknown, which had a lot to do with the markets wind bias and news trading fatigue, which also provided a basis for further increases in the future.

2. Bitcoin and global risk assets have simultaneously entered a momentum vacuum period with a lack of new trading events. They are no longer sensitive to event stimuli and the impact of macro events. The entire market has entered a state of waiting for the next narrative (expected to be a unified adjustment of the interest rate cut path).

3. The winter night of altcoins has completely entered the deep night after a round of emotional ups and downs. Both trading volume and volatility are no longer there. It can be foreseen that in the medium term, new funds will find it difficult to come to CEX to liberate the chips that teachers are deeply trapped after observing options such as SBET CIRCLE. The painful liquidation of chips will emerge in an endless stream in numbness.

Review and comments on the overall market situation and market trends

In the past month, the market has experienced a cooling process with gradually weakening momentum. After Bitcoin reached a new high, the market, especially the traditional 加密貨幣currency market, was cold, which further confirmed the reality shown by the on-chain data: the old cryptocurrency players have sold their Bitcoin in batches in the past two rounds of chip exchanges. The event momentum accumulated under the extreme market conditions in April was also released in the Bitcoin price. The entire US dollar market entered a vacuum period of lack of momentum, and volatility and trading volume converged rapidly.

As for the price of Bitcoin, we think it is too early to worry about the peak. In fact, the entire US dollar asset market has become fatigued by the event stimulus and the existing macro narrative. We expect that the next unified trading stimulus and narrative will be the rapid formation of consensus on the path of interest rate cuts. Global liquidity has been at a new high for a long time, and the support for asset prices will not disappear in the medium term.

What may be more important this month is that after a round of rapid rise, we have seen the clear evidence of the transfer of funds flow path from traditional CEX to Nasdaq that has been reported since March. The price behavior and lack of market depth that investors feel can be abstracted as the collapse of trading volume. Data from a friendly company show that the contract trading volume of CEX has recently fallen to the level of 2020.

When we see ETH sentiment rising, the best performing assets in the market have also turned to listed companies such as SBET, and are no longer the LDO OP of a few years ago. In addition to linking with listed shell companies, altcoins may only be able to wait quietly for several years for the chips to be cleared and continue to pray for the gift of fate.

Finally, regarding ETH, our previous view that ETH benefits from the dual support of regulatory relaxation and liquidity remains unchanged, and we completed our trading bet in May. After ETH stabilizes on the annual line and the exchange rate breaks through the current consolidation state, it is expected that there will be new trading opportunities. Let us encourage each other.

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Metrics Ventures 是一家數據和研究驅動的加密資產二級市場流動性基金，由經驗豐富的加密專業人士團隊領導。團隊擁有一級市場孵化和二級市場交易的專業知識，透過深入的鏈上/鏈下數據分析，在產業發展中發揮積極作用。 MVC與加密社群資深影響者合作，為專案提供長期賦能支持，如媒體與KOL資源、生態協作資源、專案策略、經濟模式諮詢能力等。

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