Metrics Ventures Market Watch: Benign consolidation is coming as expected

Metrics Ventures 是一家二級基金 加密貨幣 market, has published a review of its March market observations:

1/ This months market conditions have led many peers to call for the end of the bull market, but we firmly believe that the volatility of Bitcoin here just confirms the previous view that this round of market conditions has only reached the halfway point. This is mainly based on the trend fitting relationship between Bitcoin and US dollar risk assets, the reasons for the adjustment of the US dollar system at this moment, the re-strengthening of long-term logic, and the re-confirmation of the moderate macro-regulatory environment.

2/ The weakening of a large number of altcoins represented by Ethereum is the main pessimistic support for the market at present. As always, we adhere to the view of decoupling Bitcoin and other crypto assets since April last year. The real macro-supported liquidity bull market has not yet arrived. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the huge uncertainty in the next round of capital flow path.

3/ Looking ahead, we believe that the high turnover range formed here has been broken, confirming that the market has entered a period of re-consolidation and accumulation of momentum, but looking back at the historical trends of core US dollar assets such as AAPL, we believe that the real key support for Bitcoin is around 75,000, and there is no need to worry before that.

盤點及對市場整體狀況及市場走勢的評論：

One of our core focus indicators for Bitcoins current trend is Bitcoins positioning as a risky asset in the US dollar system. The effectiveness of this observation is due to the fact that the switching of core assets in the US dollar system has always been gradual and driven by macro, regulatory, fundamental and other factors. Specifically, the following trend indicators we have observed are still strong:

① Bitcoin still has a clear advantage in Sharpe ratio compared to the Nasdaq and other Seven Sisters assets, and Bitcoins resilience has once again been verified in a series of factors such as tariffs;

② The loosening of chips on the chain is not serious, especially in the release of negative news, it shows a stronger signal of acceptance rather than a signal of collapse, and the supply has not increased out of control;

③ From a regulatory perspective, we believe that the recent series of regulatory actions are significant long-term positive cornerstones. The market’s lack of understanding of the U.S. political and economic system is the main source of irrational fluctuations and will not change the long-term positive trend.

Combined with Bessent’s recent indication of the pace of risk release for the entire US dollar, we firmly believe that the mid-term adjustment cycle starting in February is an excellent opportunity to build positions in the next 15 months.

Finally, in our opinion, the industrys liquidation has finally entered a rapid period. If the liquidation period can resonate with emotions at a fast and strong amplitude, it may just catch up with the next macro liquidity bull market. However, we still need to remind you that the capital flow path of the next bull market may be completely different from that of 21 years. Therefore, the existing so-called crypto assets need to be extremely cautious from a long-term holding perspective.

Figure: The strength and weakness relationship between BTC and Nasdaq in the past three years

關於我們

Metrics Ventures 是一家數據和研究驅動的加密資產二級市場流動性基金，由經驗豐富的加密專業人士團隊領導。團隊擁有一級市場孵化和二級市場交易的專業知識，透過深入的鏈上/鏈下數據分析，在產業發展中發揮積極作用。 MVC與加密社群資深影響者合作，為專案提供長期賦能支持，如媒體與KOL資源、生態協作資源、專案策略、經濟模式諮詢能力等。

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