Subject to macro factors, CPI and Powells speech will dominate the short-term trend of BTC (02.03~02.09)

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This week, BTC opened at $97,676.53 and closed at $96,475.82, down -1.23% for the week, with the highest amplitude of 11.69%. It once again attacked the $90,000 to $108,000 box, and the trading volume shrank slightly.

Due to the impact of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, BTC first plummeted on Monday and then miraculously recovered. Since then, it has been fluctuating at a low level, showing that in the current market its risk asset attributes are far stronger than those of digital gold.

Due to the pressure of short contracts last weekend and this Monday, BTC has experienced the largest intraday volatility in recent times, up to 11.69%, marking the lowest point since mid-January at 91178.01. The violent fluctuations caused the spot short-hand to realize a loss of more than US$800 million. The loss in the contract market is estimated to be as high as tens of billions of dollars.

Due to large-scale liquidation, BTC continued to fluctuate around $97,000 after Monday, and it appeared relatively stable after multiple macro-negative factors hit the market on Friday. However, if the severely hit market wants to resume its upward trend, it will be difficult to achieve it only by internal forces.

Currently, BTC is still running within the Trump bottom (89,000 ~ 110,000 US dollars), and the price is hovering on the second rising trend line, and will face short-term direction choices.

Macro-financial and economic data

The 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico were postponed at the last minute, allowing the violently falling BTC and US stocks to recover their losses without any danger. However, by the weekend, there was another double blow from the economic and policy aspects.

After the release of the non-farm payrolls data on Friday, which sent mixed signals, the market was in a chaotic trade and failed to find a direction. Then the University of Michigan consumer survey showed that consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low due to high concerns about inflation. Then, Trump announced that he would announce reciprocal tariffs on several countries next week.

Affected by this, the US dollar index fluctuated upward to 108.31, showing that the market is once again worried about rising inflation and worsening interest rate hike expectations. The three major US stock indexes plunged during the session, falling more than 1%, wiping out the gains for the whole week.

After a period of decline, U.S. Treasury yields rebounded due to expectations of a rebound in inflation. The 1-year Treasury bond rebounded to 4.232%, and the 10-year Treasury bond rebounded to 4.494%, again approaching the high of 4.5%, putting pressure on the equity market.

Fear of inflation and uncertainty of interest rate cuts has led to funds actively going long on gold. This week, London gold rose for six consecutive weeks, rising to $2,861.81 per ounce, and the increase this week was magnified to 2.18%.

Next week, the market will see the release of the US CPI for January. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend a hearing of the Senate Banking Committee and give testimony on the semi-annual monetary policy report. He will also attend a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee the next day.

CPI and Powell鈥檚 hearing will be the main factors that dominate BTC鈥檚 trend next week.

Selling pressure and selling

In terms of selling pressure, long and short hands sold a total of 176,682 million coins, a slight increase from last week and maintained at a normal level, while the exchange trading volume shrank slightly during the same period.

The contract market was hit hard, with open contracts losing tens of billions of dollars in positions, making it the biggest loser in this weeks volatile market.

Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF

Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF and ETH Spot ETF channels received inflows of US$5.662 billion throughout the week, which were US$5.074 billion, US$183 million, and US$405 million respectively, maintaining a strong inflow trend.

However, it can be seen that the inflow scale of BTC Spot ETF, which is directly converted into purchasing power, has declined for two consecutive weeks, which is also the fundamental reason for the weak performance of BTC prices.

週期指標

According to the eMerge engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.625, and the market is in an upward phase.

EMC Labs was founded by 加密貨幣 asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, takes industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, and is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring benefits to mankind.

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