Matrixport Investment Research: BTC price rebounds, or rises in medium- and long-term fluctuations

The market may gradually weaken its concern about short-term tariff uncertainties. Although the possibility of a full return to normal in the macro environment is low – tariffs still exist, companies may postpone capital expenditures, and consumers remain cautious – there is still a moderate upward repricing opportunity for the US stock market, which will provide support for risky assets including BTC.

BTC stands firm on the 21-week moving average, with obvious upside potential

The current BTC price has risen to $93,653, breaking through and stabilizing above the 21-week moving average. The 21-week moving average is our preferred and intuitive technical indicator for judging the markets long and short trends. BTC has re-broken and stabilized above the 21-week moving average, which also coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $87,045. This price can now be considered a reasonable stop loss for long positions. Although the summer market is usually range-bound, BTC still has the potential to rise further, especially the recent strong performance of gold, which further strengthens the reason for allocating Bitcoin from a macro perspective.

Gold becomes the ultimate choice of safe-haven assets, with a clear vertical stretch momentum

Since the beginning of 2024, spot gold prices have risen by about 150%. As stock markets, bond markets and risk asset enthusiasts continue to seek capital safe havens in an uncertain economic situation, gold has recently shown a vertical upward momentum, breaking through $3,500/ounce and entering a short-term consolidation. Data shows that this gold price increase mainly occurred in the Asian session, and it is not ruled out that capital flows from official or central banks are shifting from the US dollar to other safe-haven assets.

In this round of rising cycle, the market value of gold tokens has also been increasing. Among them, XAUm, the gold token launched by Matrixports RWA platform, has quickly seized the adoption rate of gold tokens on the chain by anchoring 1:1 to 99.99% gold bars certified by LBMA and supporting physical redemption. This week, the redemption and delivery of the first batch of physical gold bars of XAUm also caused heated discussions in the market.

The peak of the US dollar cycle may provide support for the rise of BTC prices

It is possible that BTC will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the future, but changes in the macro environment, especially the possibility that the US dollar cycle is approaching the top, may provide substantial support for BTC. This trend has provided support for gold and may also be good for BTC. Global US dollar asset holders are continuously seeking asset diversification and gradually reducing their dependence on the US dollar. This process is expected to continue for several years.

BTC spot ETF fund flow is an important investment indicator at present

At the same time, the inflow of funds into BTC spot ETFs is expected to accelerate. This may become a key indicator that the market needs to pay attention to, especially if the inflow of funds accelerates and is earlier than expected, which will challenge our previous assumption that ETF funds will not pick up until the Fed Chairman Powell turns to an easing stance. Although this shift has not yet occurred, this indicator is still an important signal that traders must pay close attention to.

BTC is currently approaching the upper limit of the $73,000 to $94,000 range. Traders may consider the Stock Replacement Strategy. This strategy involves taking profits on existing BTC positions and converting them to more neutral positions, such as using 5% of funds to purchase call options with an exercise price of 110% of the current market price (i.e. 10% out-of-the-money). If BTC pulls back, the maximum loss is limited to 5% of the option cost; if the rise continues, investors can still enjoy the potential for rising gains while keeping the risks under control. This is an efficient strategy that maintains flexible allocation in an environment with strong market uncertainty.

ڈس کلیمر: مارکیٹ خطرناک ہے اور سرمایہ کاری میں محتاط رہنا چاہئے۔ یہ مضمون سرمایہ کاری کے مشورے پر مشتمل نہیں ہے۔ ڈیجیٹل اثاثوں کی تجارت انتہائی خطرناک اور غیر مستحکم ہو سکتی ہے۔ سرمایہ کاری کے فیصلے ذاتی حالات پر غور کرنے اور مالیاتی ماہرین سے مشورہ کرنے کے بعد کیے جائیں۔ Matrixport اس مواد میں فراہم کردہ معلومات کی بنیاد پر سرمایہ کاری کے کسی بھی فیصلے کے لیے ذمہ دار نہیں ہے۔

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