Matrixport Investment Research: Geopolitical situation disturbs the market, and short-term prices are under obvious pres

As the geopolitical situation escalates, safe-haven assets are flowing in significantly

In the early morning of the 13th, Israel launched an airstrike on Iran, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated significantly, and the market reacted violently. The risk-averse investment boom swept the world again, and U.S. Treasury bonds, gold, and crude oil rose accordingly. Among them, crude oil once soared by more than 10%, and gold also broke through $3,400, with a daily increase of more than 1.68%. The prices of risky assets fell collectively. The price of BTC once fell by more than 3%, falling below $103,000, and ETH once fell by about 6.9%.

At present, BTC has a relatively clear support level of $101,000, but the short-term 加密货币 asset price may still be dominated by geopolitical news. The market is still waiting for more geopolitical news and Iran鈥檚 potential response. If traders choose to significantly reduce their exposure to risky asset allocations before the weekend, risk sentiment may deteriorate further.

Crypto IPOs are being prepared intensively, and Wall Street may push BTC to maintain high levels

Data shows that many crypto companies are preparing to go public, and the strong BTC market not only stimulates strong interest among investors, but also brings considerable consulting income to investment banks.

12 US companies may become candidates for the next round of IPOs. Among them, Circle and Galaxy Digital have already completed their listings. Two other crypto exchanges, Bullish and Gemini, have reportedly submitted IPO applications with market valuations of $13.5 billion and $10.5 billion, respectively. Kraken is also expected to start the IPO process in the fourth quarter of 2025 or the first quarter of 2026, with a valuation of $16.2 billion. Given that Kraken and Circle have similar revenue expectations for 2024, this valuation is roughly in line with Coinbases current revenue multiples.

Although some funds may have originally been allocated to BTC ETFs or other crypto assets, this wave of IPOs is reshaping the market structure: on the one hand, it absorbs liquidity, and on the other hand, it expands investors exposure to the crypto ecosystem, thereby providing a certain degree of support for BTC prices.

On Friday, Bitcoin approached the $100,000 mark, and the market has shown initial signs. Strong demand for Circle shares helped Bitcoin rebound strongly and break through the technical resistance level of $106,000. However, as the geopolitical situation develops and the market enters a relatively quiet summer period, it is not ruled out that the current market will enter a short-term volatile sideways trend. As Wall Street is actively preparing for more crypto-related IPOs, BTC is expected to continue to benefit from increased media and investor attention.

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