Bitcoin value trend research: the value evolution code in four halvings

Original author: SanTiLi, Nashida, Legolas

Abstract

This article will focus on the four halving events of Bitcoin from 2012 to 2024, systematically sort out the halving mechanism of Bitcoin, the trend of inflation rate changes, and combine the market performance before and after the halving to deeply explore the influence of price trends. Through historical data analysis and macro comparison, this article points out that Bitcoin has entered a period of inflation rate lower than that of gold, its scarcity is becoming more and more prominent, and it gradually has the long-term value logic to compete with traditional assets. At the same time, from the perspective of the cyclical rhythm of the four halvings, although the increase since the halving in 2024 has been moderate, it is still in the stage of accumulation, and the real window may be gradually opened between 2025 and 2026. Finally, the article discusses the core value foundation of Bitcoin, including scarcity, decentralization mechanism and deflation model, and points out that its logic as digital gold is becoming increasingly mature.

1. Bitcoin halving cycle basic rewards and inflation rate:

Bitcoin was designed by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, with a total circulation of 21 million coins. In the early days, miners could receive 50 BTC as a reward for each successful block mined. This reward is automatically halved every 210,000 blocks mined (about four years), gradually reducing the amount of new issuance.

The BTC halving cycle officially began in 2012, with a halving every four years, and in 2024, each block rewards 3.125 BTC, and the annual inflation is: 5256 0x 3.125 = 164,250 pieces, accounting for about 0.782% of the total. The inflation rate of about 0.78% is lower than the annual inflation rate of most developed countries, and the total inflation rate of gold mining is about 1.5% -2%. At present, BTC has entered the period of inflation rate lower than the inflation rate of gold.

Fig.1 Bitcoin halving cycle rewards and inflation chart

As shown in the chart: When each block has 50 rewards, the annual increase is about: 5256 0x 50 = 2.628 million, accounting for about 12.5% of the total 21 million, and in 2025, when each block has 6.25 rewards, the annual increase is: 5256 0x 6.25 = 328,500, accounting for about 1.564% of the total 21 million

As of 2025-5-7 14:00, a total of BTC has been mined: 19,861,268 pieces, accounting for about 94.58% , and the total market value is about 2 trillion US dollars ($2034,300,009,004). Compared with the last halving cycle in 2020, about 18385031 pieces were mined at that time, accounting for about 87.5%, and the total market value was about 161.8 billion US dollars. After about 5 years, the total market value has increased by about 1236%.

The annual inflation rate for the next four years was only 0.782%.

Fig.2 Comparison of inflation rates of major countries in the world from 2019 to 2025

Chinas inflation rate in 2019 was about 2.9%, and the U.S. inflation rate was 2.3%. At that time, due to the COVID-19 subsidies in 2020, we predicted that the substantial increase in U.S. dollar subsidies would cause a significant increase in inflation from 2020 to 2022. The U.S. inflation rate did reach a high of 8%, and then declined year by year due to the Feds interest rate hike policy. By 2024, it had dropped to around 2.2%. Chinas annual inflation rate was about 0.2%, which was better than other major countries in limiting inflation (2019-2024: data from official statistical agencies of various countries. 2025: data is the forecast value of the IMF report and actual updates.) Most developed countries have statistics of around 2.5%, but the actual shopping and currency depreciation experience should be significantly greater than the statistics.

At this time, this #Bitcoin halving will halve BTCs inflation rate again, and will enter a new historically lower inflation level of 0.782%. In principle, a reduction in inflation rate is not a bad thing for any asset, because it will further increase scarcity. However, this does not necessarily mean that the value of an asset will rise by 100% in a short period of time, but it is a relatively important anti-depreciation factor.

2. Comparative analysis of Bitcoin’s market performance after four rounds of halving:

Since the advent of Bitcoin, each block reward halving has had a profound impact on the BTC market price. From 2012 to 2024, the four halving events have shown some relatively consistent cyclical characteristics. This article compares the market price trends before and after each halving in detail, and also extracts some rules with reference value for readers. History will never repeat itself, but there will always be similar rules before reaching the peak or on the verge of destruction.

Fig.3 Data chart of value changes of BTC in four halving cycles

As shown in Fig.3, the trend data of BTC in the first half of the year and one year after the halving are counted, as well as the trend of the highest point in the corresponding period. As can be seen from the figure, the price of Bitcoin has risen sharply after each halving. Calculated based on the closing price on the day of halving, the increase in 2012 halving was more than 8000% within one year, about 286% in 2016, about 475% in 2020, and only about 31% within one year after 2024 halving (the highest so far is 68.75% – $ 109588).

1. There has been a significant increase in the six months before the halving

Looking back at the four halving events, Bitcoin usually gradually enters an upward channel half a year before the halving. For example:

• When the halving occurred in 2012, the price increased by 141.03% compared to 6 months ago.

• The halving in 2024 will be a 118.88% increase compared to 6 months ago

This stage often corresponds to the process of the market gradually pricing in the halving expectation and has a strong preparation signal value.

2. The core outbreak period is 6 to 12 months after the halving, but it is not necessarily the peak.

The three rounds of historical experience all show that the 6th to 12th month after the halving is the main uptrend stage of Bitcoin:

• 2012: One year later, the increase reached 8181.51%

• 2016: One year later, the stock price increased by 286.29%

• 2020: 475.64% increase after one year

• 2024: It is not yet a year old, currently 31.18% , with a maximum of 68.75% ($100.9k)

Especially in 2012 and 2020, a typical structure of consolidation within half a year, followed by an explosion was presented. One year later, the peak explosion period reached a new historical high. Currently, the 2024 halving has just passed a year. If history repeats itself, the real explosion window may open between 2025 and Q1 2026.

3. The trend in the first year after the halving has a preliminary reference significance

After the halving in 2024, Bitcoin rose by 10.02% in one month, but then fluctuated and pulled back in the next two months, and was generally in the accumulation stage. As of October 2024 (halving half a year later), the price has only risen slightly by 6.30% relative to the halving day, far from entering the main rising stage. But this is not uncommon in history. In 2016 and 2020, the market was officially launched half a year after the halving.

4. The peak of each bull market mainly occurs within 6-12 months after the halving.

According to the data from the first three rounds, the highest price of the halving cycle relative to the closing price on the day of halving all appeared in the mid-term before the next halving:

• 2012: The highest increase was 9237.15%

• 2016: Increase of 2825.84%

• 2020: Increase of 700.28%

After the halving in 2024, the current high point has reached $109,588 , up 68.75% from the halving day, and has not yet entered the exponential outbreak stage. This rule only applies to the end of this round, because after the end of this round, if BTC can reach a value of up to 30-50W or even 100W, then its valuation volume will be very large. The next halving, unless the reference anchor depreciates or the application exploration is further expanded, such as interstellar exploration. Otherwise, it is difficult to see a multiple increase.

Summary of charts:

Bitcoin’s historical halving cycle shows a highly consistent three-stage rhythm:

Accumulating momentum for an uptrend (6 months before halving) → Steady fluctuations (6 months after halving) → Main uptrend outbreak (6 to 18 months after halving) The 2024 halving is about to be completed in a year, which means that the market may still be accumulating energy for a later outbreak. Similar to the eve of 2017, coincidentally, it was also the early days of Trumps presidency. At the same time, the Stock-to-Flow chart also indirectly assists us in the reference value point of view that we are still in the process of accumulating strength and then bursting out: However, historical data and rules are only of reference value. We cannot blindly follow the guidance of the data, but also have enough self-judgment and self-study DYOR.

Fig.4 Bitcoin price stock-to-flow chart

3. BTC’s own long-term value and scientific attributes:

The value of an asset comes from consensus and its own value, and long-term consensus must come from its inherent advancement, scientific attributes and irreplaceable precedence. Bitcoin (BTC) is not only a mật mã asset, but also an innovative result at the intersection of science, technology, economics, mathematics, cryptography and other disciplines. Its long-term value is not maintained by market speculation alone, but is based on a set of rigorous, verifiable and anti-manipulation system designs.

1. Scarcity:

As we mentioned above, the total amount of Bitcoin is constant at 21 million, which is written into the underlying code by Satoshi Nakamoto and gradually released through the block reward halving mechanism. It is halved every four years and will be fully issued around 2140. Compared with the unlimited issuance mechanism of legal currency, Bitcoin has a natural deflationary feature, which supports its long-term appreciation logic from the perspective of supply and demand.

Scarcity design is the core pillar of Bitcoins anti-inflation, laying the foundation for it to become digital gold.

2. #Decentralization : Consensus mechanism ensures network neutrality

The Bitcoin network relies on the decentralized PoW (Proof of Work) consensus mechanism provided by computing power. Any node can verify transactions and participate in maintaining the ledger. This structure effectively avoids problems in traditional financial networks such as centralized single point failure, abuse of power, and system control. The great global decentralization also avoids 51% attacks to the greatest extent.

3. Deflation model to combat fiat currency depreciation

As shown in Fig 2, the deflationary issuance model built into Bitcoin is in sharp contrast to the inflation structure of fiat currencies around the world. Especially in the context of large-scale QE and currency flooding by global central banks since 2020, Bitcoin has gradually proven that it can be a hedge against the risks of fiat currency depreciation and asset bubbles. BTC is gradually becoming a safe haven for global funds in the era of gradual distrust of fiat currencies.

4. Technological attributes: advanced cryptography + peer-to-peer network design

Bitcoin integrates the following cutting-edge technologies:

● Elliptic curve encryption (ECDSA): ensure account security and private key signature

● SHA-256 hash algorithm: ensures data immutability

● Merkle tree structure: efficient verification of transactions within a block

● P2P peer-to-peer network: realizing global value transfer without intermediaries

The combination of these core technologies makes Bitcoin a highly robust, unforgeable value transmission network with unlimited scalability, laying a solid foundation for subsequent second-layer expansion (such as lightning network and ecological applications). BTC is not only an asset, but also a masterpiece of cryptographic technology engineering. Future quantum-resistant updates are also worth looking forward to.

5. Challengers to the global financial order: alternative consensus assets for the change in the US dollar trend

The world is currently experiencing a wave of de-dollarization: settlements between countries are beginning to shift to local currencies, gold, and #decentralized assets . Bitcoin, with its non-sovereign objectivity, globalization, and scarcity, has become an important channel for asset transfer and value storage in emerging markets and turbulent countries. It has built a new financial order model that coexists with #dollars Và #gold but is independent – a neutral system of consensus currency. When certain countries credit is difficult to trust, relying on objective algorithmic credit will become a moat between the international community. Of course, regulatory agencies in various countries also need to further intervene to prevent the frequent occurrence of illegal activities.

6. Potential financial infrastructure of interstellar civilization (not yet applied, this is a personal exploration point of view)

Bitcoin is currently the only value protocol that does not rely on any country, #bank , #internet entity . Its ledger can exist at any node between planets, and only electricity and computing power are needed to maintain the network. This structure is naturally suitable for future space exploration scenarios, such as Mars or lunar exploration, and is convenient for quick and direct use and application. However, since human exploration of extraterrestrial space is still in the rough stage, there has not been any major breakthrough in stable login and arrival, so this is limited to personal fantasy. But if we look at the 30-50 year cycle, it seems that initial planetary applications are not completely impossible. Bitcoin (or credit points) can be used as the underlying token of human digital civilization.

So the overall scientific properties of BTC:

Supply ceiling (scarcity) + consensus strength (decentralization);

Real-world background: The credit of legal tender continues to weaken and the debt bubble expands;

Amid future uncertainties, Bitcoins anchoring properties become increasingly prominent.

IV. Summary of BTC’s main long-term trend value

This article draws the following conclusions through the performance analysis of the BTC halving cycle and its long-term scientific properties:

The four halving cycles of Bitcoin show a highly consistent market rhythm: expectations before halving drive the rise, short-term consolidation after halving accumulates momentum, and then usher in the main upward trend. From the perspective of inflation rate, after the halving in 2024, the annual inflation rate of Bitcoin will drop to 0.78%, which is lower than gold for the first time, further consolidating its position as a scarce asset. Against the backdrop of continued high inflation, credit expansion, and increasingly large debt bất chấpcits in the global fiat currency system, Bitcoins deflation model and decentralized characteristics are attracting more and more attention and allocation from traditional capital.

Although short-term market fluctuations still exist and the possibility of the sudden appearance of black swans cannot be ignored, the logic of Bitcoins long-term value is gradually becoming clear: it is not only a cryptocurrency, but also a new type of asset based on cryptography and consensus. In the future cycle, its long-term value potential, its ability to hedge inflation, and the irreplaceable nature of its underlying technology, as well as the further expansion of ecological development, will continue to empower it and build the core value barrier that digital gold should have.

Point of view reminder: Some people classify it as such because there are speculation or concept fraud in the market. This is also an objective research attitude (or it can be said that projects that rely solely on hype are difficult to last, such as many memes)

Risk Warning: This articles discussion of the halving cycle and long-term value is only for popular science and learning reference research, not investment advice. Please carefully research and form your own judgment logic, and do not blindly follow anyone. DYOR.

This article is sourced from the internet: Bitcoin value trend research: the value evolution code in four halvings

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