Looking back at ALPACA: When bad news becomes a short-term wealth code

Nguồn gốc: TechFlow

In recent days, $ALPACA, the Alpaca Coin that is about to be delisted from Binance, has been active in the center of the market, stirring up tens of billions of dollars in total trading volume with a circulating market value of $30 million. On April 24, Binance announced that it would delist four tokens including Alpaca Finance ($ALPACA) on May 2.

The news of delisting from Binance is usually a huge negative for the project – delisting means reduced liquidity and shrinking trading volume, and the token price often falls or even never recovers.

However, after the delisting news was released, $ALPACA experienced a 30% drop in a short period of time (based on the spot price of the Binance trading platform), and then the price soared nearly 12 times in three days, from $0.029 to a maximum of $0.3477. At the same time, $ALPACAs open interest (OI) was several times higher than its token market value, and the meat grinder market of long-short game around $ALPACA began.

Rate settlement accelerates, bull-short game intensifies

Subsequently, Binance adjusted the funding rate rules, shortening the cap rate cycle to once an hour (up to 2%), further intensifying the intensity of the long-short game. Bulls not only profited by pulling the price, but also continued to eat high funding rates. Bulls ate and took within a few days, and the $ALPACA price continued to be high for nearly four days.

If the settlement rate is -2% every hour, then under the premise of 1x leverage, short sellers will lose at least 48% of their principal if they hold a short position for one day. Even with such a high fee, there are still funds that continue to choose to short.

In the fierce game, some people found that some traders with millions of US dollars in trading volume had been shorting $ALPACA with high leverage, and finally their positions were liquidated along with the millions of US dollars of the traders funds.

On April 29, Binance raised the $ALPACA contract fee cap to 卤4%. For short sellers, the increase in the fee cap will double the cost of short selling. However, once the rules that should have discouraged short sellers were issued, the price of $ALPACA plummeted again, counterintuitively, from $0.27 to around $0.067.

There are no absolute trading rules

As trading volume and attention gradually shift, the $ALPACA story may come to an end.

Looking back at this farce worth hundreds of billions of dollars, the recent $ALPACA is a meme in some ways. The negative news of delisting has brought a lot of attention, which has brought the principle of black and red are also red to the extreme in price fluctuations. At the same time, the relatively low circulating market value (low point is less than 4 million US dollars) in the same level environment (first-tier trading platform), the highly controlled chips, and the wide price fluctuations that constantly stimulate the nerves of players, even the image of alpaca is linked to the meme.

Although the image is cute, for users who really participate in the game, these days can only be described as bloody. The market is crazy when there is bad news, and it falls smoothly when there is short burst news. The complex trend of $ALPACA in the past few days subverts the usual sell the news logic and also subverts the positions of many people.

Obviously, the boundary between good news and bad news has gradually blurred, and the previous single judgment logic has gradually become inappropriate for the evolving market. Instead, violent manipulation that plays with human nature is prevalent, and the constantly updated liquidation data gradually occupies the center of the market. It may be more appropriate to describe this evolutionary direction as barbaric growth.

However, there are two sides to every coin. Some people feel confused, while others feel excited. This farce is not a bad thing for everyone. For many participants who pursue the excitement of price fluctuations and have superior abilities, this move by Alpaca is even a long-lost opportunity to make a lot of money.

There are also voices saying that the reason behind the short selling of the copycat users money at any cost is a hunt for retail investors funds, just as the movie title says: The money of the gentry is returned in full, and the money of the people is divided into 30% and 70%. It is difficult to judge whether the statement is true or false at the moment, but what is certain is that even if the real situation is not so dark, the final winner of this manipulation will not be the ordinary users.

Under the premise that the corresponding regulatory measures have not yet been perfected, $ALPACA may not be the last crazy manipulation in this market. As of the end of this article, the price of $ALPACA is still fluctuating violently, and perhaps there will be more exciting performances before it is officially delisted.

However, in the turbulent price game, it is difficult for ignorant participants to have their own reserve. Under the siege of attention and liquidity, perhaps watching less and doing more is the most EV-positive strategy for retail investors. Seeing the big news and the uncharacteristic price trend, it is not only retail investors who think the opportunity has come, but also the long-hungry project parties.

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This article is sourced from the internet: Looking back at ALPACA: When bad news becomes a short-term wealth code

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