Bitget 2025 Global Market Year-End Review: Dollar Retreat, AI Frenzy, Crypto Reshuffle, Gold & Silver Peak

دیباچہ

Standing at the end of 2025 and looking back on this year’s global capital markets, we have witnessed not just the rise and fall of numbers, but a profound paradigm revolution. As Trump returned to the White House, as Nvidia’s market cap surpassed $5 trillion, as gold historically broke above $4,000, and as Bitcoin experienced violent swings amid policy games—we realized that the old world order is crumbling, and the contours of the new era are not yet clear.

This year, the market sought order amidst chaos, placing firm bets on seemingly small yet certain trends amid high uncertainty. The return of political strongmen ignited the flames of policy uncertainty, the breakneck advance of artificial intelligence fueled the expansion of the trillion-dollar club, and the loosening of monetary order triggered a global re-pricing of assets.

I. Macro Upheaval—Order Restructuring Amid Power Games

The Trump Trade: From Threat to Predictable Policy ٹول

On January 20, 2025, Trump was sworn in for a second term, and global capital markets entered the “Policy Reassessment Era.” Trump’s “MAGA 2.0” policy package contains three cores: the weaponization of trade protectionism, the radicalization of fiscal expansion, and the localization of industrial repatriation. This policy mix essentially trades global efficiency for domestic political stability.

The April tariff farce became the most representative event of the year. On April 2, Trump imposed “reciprocal tariffs” on major trading partners. The S&P 500 plunged 9% that week, wiping over $5 trillion from global stock market value. Yet just a week later, on April 9, a sudden 90-day tariff suspension was announced, and the market rebounded sharply by 5.7%, marking the largest single-week gain since November 2020.

This cycle of “policy threat—market panic—policy concession—market euphoria” was a meticulously designed political economy experiment. The market gradually learned to find signals in the noise, and “TACO trading” became a buzzword. By October, when Trump threatened tariffs again, the VIX only rose to 22, far below April’s 38, indicating that the market had come to view Trump’s tariff threats as a predictable policy tool rather than a genuine “black swan.”

The essence of Trumponomics is using policy uncertainty as a negotiation tool to find a dynamic balance between protectionism and globalization. While this model increases short-term volatility, it also creates massive alpha opportunities for investors who can accurately predict policy directions. In 2026, as the election approaches, this policy game will become more frequent, and the market needs to learn to find patterns in the chaos.

The Fed’s Difficult Choice: The Dilemma of Fighting Inflation vs. Preventing Recession

At the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, Powell publicly acknowledged for the first time that “the path to rate cuts is clear,” and the market immediately priced in 75 basis points of cuts for the year. This prediction was quite accurate—rate cuts in September, October, and December lowered the federal funds rate from 4.5% to 3.75%.

More notably, on December 10, the RMP (Reserve Management Purchase plan) was announced, with the Fed stating it would purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasuries monthly. This is essentially quantitative easing in disguise; the Fed is struggling to balance debt monetization with inflation control.

Looking ahead to 2026, the Fed faces an even more complex situation. Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and his successor’s policy stance remains unclear. If Trump is re-elected, he may appoint a more dovish chair, further weakening the Fed’s independence. Meanwhile, inflation is not yet fully tamed. In this context, the Fed’s policy space is very limited. Continuing rate cuts could rekindle inflation; stopping easing too early could trigger a recession.

This dilemma means the monetary policy path in 2026 will be more tortuous, with market volatility remaining elevated. Investors need to closely monitor the wording changes in every FOMC meeting to find trading opportunities in subtle policy differences.

Undercurrents in Dollar Hegemony: Credit Debasement and Multipolar Trends

In the macro narrative of 2025, the most far-reaching change was the quiet loosening of the dollar’s status. The DXY plunged 12.5% for the year, plummeting from the 110 level at the start of the year to a low of 96.37 in July, marking its worst half-year performance since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973.

This crisis stemmed from a “triple threat”: narrowing US economic advantages weakened the incentive for capital to flow to the US; exhausted US fiscal credit led international investors to demand higher risk premiums, with foreign holdings of US Treasuries hitting a 20-year low; and the disappearance of interest rate differentials as the Fed cut rates while other central banks held steady.

The dollar’s weakness had widespread effects on asset prices: a broad rally in commodities, with gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and other dollar-denominated goods prices soaring collectively. Secondly, non-US currencies generally appreciated, with EUR/USD rising from 1.03 to 1.17 and USD/CNY falling from 7.2 to 7.0. Finally, emerging market assets became more attractive, with the MSCI Emerging بازارs Index rising 28% for the year, outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 13 percentage points.

Of course, the loosening of dollar hegemony does not equal its collapse. The dollar still holds an absolute dominant position in global foreign exchange reserves and international trade settlement.

But history tells us that the decline of a hegemony often begins with erosion at the edges, not a collapse at the center. The British pound was still the world’s largest reserve currency in 1914, but by the 1944 Bretton Woods conference, the dollar had taken its place. That process took 30 years. While the challenges facing the dollar today are not as severe as those faced by the pound back then, the trend toward multipolarity is clearly visible. For investors, the key is not to predict when dollar hegemony will end, but to find structural opportunities in the multipolarization process—whether in physical assets, non-US currencies, or emerging markets benefiting from currency diversification.

II. Crypto Market—The First Year of Compliance Under Policy Leadership

From Wild West to Mainstream: Policy Becomes the Biggest Alpha

If one word could summarize the کرپٹوcurrency market in 2025, it would be “the first year of compliance.” This year, crypto assets completely bid farewell to the speculative frenzy of the wild west era and entered an institutionalized cycle led by policy. From Trump’s executive orders to congressional legislation, from strategic reserves to the ETF explosion, the clarification of the US regulatory framework not only did not stifle the industry but instead catalyzed a historic bull run.

Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2025 presented a clear “three-stage rocket” model, with each stage catalyzed by specific policies.

The first stage ignited on January 20. After officially taking office, Trump signed a pro-crypto executive order, explicitly opposing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and establishing the strategic position of the private crypto industry. This statement directly removed the “regulatory sword of Damocles” that had haunted the market for years. Investors began to believe that cryptocurrencies would not face a regulatory crackdown like in 2022 but would receive policy treatment equal to traditional finance. Bitcoin quickly climbed from $74,000 at the start of the year, hitting a阶段性 high of $109,600 on January 20. Major altcoins like Ethereum and Solana rose in tandem, pushing the total crypto market cap above $3 trillion.

The second stage ignited on March 6. Trump signed the “Executive Order on Establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” announcing that the US government would establish a national-level Bitcoin reserve to address future monetary crises. This policy was not only an official endorsement of Bitcoin’s value but also elevated cryptocurrencies from fringe assets to sovereign-level strategic assets. However, the thrust of the second stage was soon offset by macro factors. From March to April, amid escalating Trump tariff conflict risks, global risk assets came under pressure, and Bitcoin once fell back to a low of $74,500.

The true main surge came from the third stage—legislative落地. On July 18, the “GENIUS Stablecoin Act” officially passed Congress, marking the establishment of a complete legal framework for cryptocurrencies in the United States. This cleared the final obstacle for traditional financial capital to enter the crypto market and was seen as a signal for massive进场. US Bitcoin spot ETF inflows reached $8.9 billion in July, the highest for the year. Bitcoin’s price soared from $92,000 in early July, breaking through $120,000 by late July and reaching a new all-time high of $124,470. Traditional asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity became major buyers. Public companies began adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin holdings by over 150,000 for the year, with tech companies like Tesla and Block following suit.

The Warning of the 10.11 Crash: Macro Factors Remain Dominant

However, risks were accumulating beneath the狂欢. The “10.11 Crash” in October became the most惨烈 scene of the year, delivering a深刻 lesson to the crypto market.

In early October, Bitcoin continued its强势, hitting a new high of $126,000 on October 7. The market普遍预期 that, with持续 ETF inflows and global liquidity easing, Bitcoin would advance towards $150,000. However, on the evening of October 10, a突发消息 shattered all幻想.

Trump threatened on social media to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods if China did not make concessions in trade negotiations. This statement immediately triggered避险情绪 across global risk assets. Asian stock markets opened sharply lower on Friday, with the A-share market falling 3.2% in a single day and the Hang Seng Index dropping 4.1%. When US markets opened, the S&P 500 gapped down 2.8%, and the Nasdaq fell 3.5%.

The reaction in the cryptocurrency market was even more剧烈. Bitcoin began a瀑布式下跌 in the early hours of October 11, plummeting from $126,000 to $101,000 in just 12 hours, a drop of nearly 20%. Major altcoins like Ethereum and Solana fell even more, dropping 25% and 32% respectively. The全网爆仓 amount reached $19.8 billion, the third-highest record in history,仅次于 the two crashes in May 2021 and November 2022.

This暴跌 exposed the脆弱性 of the crypto market: when macro systemic risks emerged, Bitcoin did not function as a避险资产 but instead became one of the first high-risk assets to be sold off. The highly leveraged trading structure exacerbated the踩踏效应, with大量多头头寸被强制平仓, forming a负反馈循环.

Paradigm Shift: From Tech Narrative to Macro Narrative

Looking back on the entire year of 2025, Bitcoin started at $74,000, reached a high of $126,000, and ended the year around $90,000, with an annual decline of approximately 6.6%. In stark contrast, gold rose 70% for the year, silver surged 124%, with physical precious metals completely outperforming digital assets.

This outcome triggered深刻反思 in the market: What exactly is Bitcoin? Is it a tool to hedge inflation, a避险资产 against currency debasement, or merely a speculative vehicle during periods of loose liquidity? The 2025 trend provided a残酷答案: Bitcoin failed to demonstrate避险属性 during the multiple crises of 2025, instead behaving as a high-beta tool extremely sensitive to liquidity withdrawal.

The deeper issue is that the pricing factors for the crypto market have undergone a fundamental change. In the past, Bitcoin’s price was primarily driven by on-chain metrics (active addresses, transaction volume) and industry events (halving, technical upgrades, hacks). But the market performance in 2025 shows that the Fed’s monetary policy, US fiscal policy, and global geopolitics—these macro factors—are becoming increasingly important for Bitcoin’s price.

This means Bitcoin has become deeply embedded in the traditional financial system and is no longer an “alternative asset” independent of the macro economy. Industry tailwinds也难以对冲 macro headwinds. When the Fed signals hawkishness, when geopolitical risks heat up, when global liquidity tightens, no matter how much policy support or institutional进场 the crypto industry has, Bitcoin’s price难以独善其身. The macro beta属性 of crypto assets has become an unavoidable reality.

The “digital gold” narrative needs time to be verified. For Bitcoin to truly become a widely accepted store of value, it needs to至少经历 one complete economic recession cycle, proving its resilience during crises. Until then, positioning Bitcoin as a “high-risk growth asset” rather than a “safe-haven asset” might be a more realistic attitude. In 2026, the crypto market’s trajectory will still primarily depend on the macro liquidity environment and policy regulatory progress. Investors need to be psychologically prepared for high volatility.

III. US Stock Market—AI Bubble, Power Revolution, and Valuation Restructuring

The Two Shocks to the AI Bubble: A Dual Test of Technology and Business Models

The US stock market in 2025 continued its强劲势头, with the three major indices frequently刷新历史高位. As of year-end, the Nasdaq Composite accumulated a gain of 22%, the S&P 500 rose 17%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 14%.

The AI narrative remained one of the main guiding lines for the US stock market. Google surged over 66%,凭借 Gemini突破, posting the largest gain among the “Magnificent Seven.” Nvidia rose over 40%,突破 a $5 trillion market cap. The AI产业链全面开花: data center construction pushed NEBIUS to soar 225% and CoreWeave up over 100%. Memory chips迎来 a “super cycle” due to the AI data explosion, with Micron Technology暴涨 230%. On the software side, Palantir rose 157%, Applovin gained 125%, and AI healthcare stock Guardant Health surged over 235%.

This看似 another tech-led bull market, but profound structural changes had occurred within the market. The most震撼 events of the year were the two shocks to the AI valuation bubble.

The first shock came from the technology层面. On January 27, DeepSeek released the DeepSeek-V3 open-source large language model, with a training cost of only $5.6 million, compared to over $100 million for GPT-4. This news投下 a震撼弹 in the global AI industry. The market was惊觉: Could the massive capital expenditure moats built by giants be breached by low-cost, high-efficiency model architectures? On January 27 alone, Nvidia暴跌 17%,蒸发 nearly $600 billion in market cap, setting the record for the largest single-day loss in US stock market history. The chip index fell over 9%, Broadcom dropped 17%, and TSMC declined 13%.

This “DeepSeek冲击波” became a分水岭 for 2025. The market began to重新审视 whether the technological barriers behind the high valuations of AI giants were solid and the payback period for massive capital expenditures. However, Nvidia subsequently逐步修复信心 with solid earnings reports. Wall Street analysts纷纷提出 that DeepSeek’s breakthrough would not threaten its business but would instead accelerate industry adoption by lowering the barrier to AI use, thereby expanding the total market size. Nvidia’s stock price突飞猛进 alongside its performance, and on October 28, Nvidia突破 the $5 trillion market cap, becoming the first publicly traded company in human history to reach that milestone.

The second shock targeted business models. On September 10, Oracle and OpenAI signed a $300 billion compute power procurement agreement, stipulating that OpenAI would purchase compute from Oracle between 2027 and 2032. This deal sent Oracle’s stock soaring 35% in a single day. But the market很快对这种 “AI循环交易”模式提出了质疑: Suppliers investing in customers, who then buy services—is this value creation or a financial game?

These质疑 were validated after Oracle released its quarterly earnings. Although revenue grew 28% year-over-year, new orders from external customers were below expectations, with most growth coming from transactions with关联方 like OpenAI and CoreWeave. Free cash flow growth was only 12%, far below revenue growth, indicating issues with business quality. The market立即做出反应, and Oracle’s stock price fell一路 from its September high, ending the year down 45%, nearly halving.

These two动荡共同揭示了 the new reality of AI investment: The market has moved from the “narrative追捧” stage into the “业绩验证” stage. Capital is no longer blindly buying into the giants’ capital expenditure stories but is starting to focus on the actual落地 and commercialization returns of AI applications.

Power Shortages Give Rise to a New Theme: The Investment Shift from Compute to Energy

As the market grew cautious about pure AI software/hardware valuations, a new investment theme emerged: power infrastructure. In an October report, Morgan Stanley pointed out that as AI infrastructure construction accelerates, US data center electricity demand is大幅攀升, with an expected power gap of up to 44 gigawatts by 2028—equivalent to the output of 44 nuclear power plants.

Capital markets迅速嗅到机会, and power-related concept stocks became the new宠儿. The first investment theme was the nuclear power复兴. Oklo Inc.年内飙涨 280%, Centrus Energy rose nearly 300%, Energy Fuels gained nearly 200%, and GE Vernova climbed over 100%. These companies share a common focus: small modular reactors (SMRs), which offer advantages like short construction cycles, flexible siting, and high safety.

The second investment theme was fuel cells and energy storage. Bloom Energy年内涨 327%, becoming the top gainer among power stocks. The company’s solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology can directly convert natural gas into electricity, and its installations can be completed on-site without relying on the grid, making it ideal for providing distributed power to data centers. Companies like Alphabet and Apple have deployed Bloom Energy’s fuel cell systems in their campuses, with a total

یہ مضمون انٹرنیٹ سے لیا گیا ہے: Bitget 2025 Global Market Year-End Review: Dollar Retreat, AI Frenzy, Crypto Reshuffle, Gold & Silver Peak

Related: Why are all the top projects betting on “participation in financialization”?

“Participatory financialization” represents a deeper evolution: how to retain users and make them more valuable. Every instance of user participation is no longer a one-off event, but rather becomes long-term value that can be accumulated, valued, and redeemed. It transforms “participation → value → re-participation” into a growth flywheel, thereby completely reshaping the logic of user retention. 01. The Shift: From “Speculative Growth” to “Participatory Financialization” Over the past five years, we have experienced: narrative-driven, airdrop-driven, emotion-driven, and now the hottest trend: attention-driven. Behind the narrative of the battle for attention provided by infoFi, we find that, driven by the attention economy and on-chain verifiability, user behavior has for the first time acquired a “measurable price,” and participation itself is becoming a measurable and settleable asset. We’ve previously discussed how…