Crypto narrative in the post-retail era: When the bull market is no longer noisy

Original author: Ada, TechFlow

The bull market is here, but why are all the groups so quiet? Netizen Macaroni raised this question in the Opensky community group.

“Because of short position + short order.” Group member Niner replied.

For Niner, who had experienced the last round of bull and bear markets, this bull market should have been a good time to make a fortune, but Niner admitted that he didnt make any money in this market.

Similar to Niner is Johhny, a full-time trader who said he has never made any money since Trump launched the Trump.

There are many cases like Niner and Johhny. Wagmi Capital partner Mark said in an interview that in this bull market, 90% of retail investors do not make money.

Although Niner has not made any money yet, he has adjusted his investment strategy in time. In the last cycle, I mainly held on, but this time I mainly do short-term trading. And because there are many new things coming out, I need to keep learning, and the pace is much faster.

Niner’s adjustments were timely, but most people still realized it too late.

The investment logic of this round is different from before, but most retail investors have not yet realized it. KOL Hippo said in an interview.

As institutional funds enter the kriptocurrency market, mainstream coins have repeatedly set new historical highs. Whether in terms of funds, acceptance of technology and narratives, or participation, this is no longer a retail investor-friendly market. Some believe that the bonus period of cryptocurrency for retail investors is coming to an end, and this round may be the last cycle for retail investors.

Based on this, TechFlow interviewed several deep participants in the cryptocurrency market, including well-known KOLs, private equity fund partners, quantitative traders, individual investors, etc., to analyze this bull market from their respective perspectives, in order to present a diverse picture of the crypto world.

A Different Crypto Bull Pasar

Hippo, who entered the cryptocurrency circle in 2016, is already very familiar with the cryptocurrency market. In the interview, he had clear thoughts and a loud voice, and he slowly recounted his observations on this round of bull market: This is no longer a market with general growth. If the previous bull market was a bull market under consensus, this round of bull market has taken a completely different path from the previous bull market under the differentiation of various policies, capital, and camps.

Hippo is a former soldier who worked in commercial real estate investment before investing in cryptocurrencies. These experiences have also shaped his bold but cautious investment style. After experiencing several rounds of bull and bear markets, he said, What I have been thinking about is what is truly valuable in this industry, and what are the assets that can survive bull and bear markets?

If the previous market was not clear enough, this round of market conditions allowed Hippo to gradually find the answer.

“In fact, I have been thinking about it for a long time, and now I find that this industry is a financial Internet. Whether it is lending, trading, staking, or the popular U.S. stock tokenization and stablecoins, they are essentially centered around finance and require a sound financial infrastructure and system.” Hippo said, “Based on this thinking, I think Ethereum still has great potential, so I will now focus on Ethereum and DeFi assets.”

In Hippos view, the starting point of this bull market began when BlackRock officially approved the Bitcoin ETF. There were short-term adjustments in the middle. The second phase of the bull market began after the United States passed the Great Beautiful Act and is expected to reach its peak in November.

But Mark sees it differently.

He said that the surge in Memecoin in the second half of last year was the starting point of this round of market, and also the first half of the bull market. The second half originated from the rise of Ethereum two weeks ago, which led to the emergence of a new wave of market. It is expected to reach the market peak in September.

“In 2017, ICO was the bull, and later altcoins were the bull, but this round is obviously different because everyone has become disenchanted, and many concepts and stories have been falsified, leaving only financial applications. So even if Ethereum has soared, it has not yet refreshed its previous historical high, and altcoins have only partially seen increases,” said Mark.

Another market veteran is quantitative trader Cheng Hua, who now has his own quantitative trading studio, mainly engaged in arbitrage trading of cryptocurrencies.

Chenghua discovered a different situation early in this round of market: in previous cycles, retail funds dominated and small currencies rose fiercely. However, this round has more mainstream funds coming in and flowing into mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin.

But he was still washed out. Although he still holds Bitcoin, he sold most of it when Bitcoin just broke through $100,000, and also changed his position when Ethereum fell the most fiercely, and did not wait for its rebound. Although he is a veteran in the industry, it is still not easy for retail investors to accurately step on the market rhythm.

Where are the opportunities for retail investors?

The most direct feeling that this bull market gave to full-time trader Johnny was: There are too many currencies, no innovation in the gameplay, insufficient liquidity, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for retail investors to make money.

In the last round of bull market, Johhny entered the cryptocurrency circle following the craze of Musk calling for Dogecoin, and made a fortune in the generally rising market. At that time, I didnt even know what K-line was, but I still made money. Johhny recalled.

But the good days are gone.

My previous investment strategy is no longer applicable to this round, said Johhny. I used to like to just hold on to the stocks I bought, or buy whatever others said. But now I have to learn to build a trading system that suits me.

But even so, the room for growth of copycat local dogs is not as great as before. The capital and technical barriers in the market are getting higher and higher, and the money-making effect is getting worse and worse, said Johhny.

So, in this bull market, why is it so difficult for retail investors to make money? And where are the opportunities for retail investors?

In Marks opinion, there are two main reasons why it is difficult for retail investors to make money in this bull market.

The first reason is that most retail investors have not yet switched from the logic of the previous bull market and still mainly hold altcoins without buying mainstream coins.

The second reason is frequent position changes. Chasing up and selling down is a common trait among retail investors, and it is also the enemy of making money, said Mark.

Mark believes that the main opportunities in this round of bull market are mainstream coins and Memecoin. However, as liquidity has improved recently, he has also discovered a new opportunity – Recently, the new coins listed on Binance have increased several times, and are no longer cut in half like before. He said, So I made an adjustment, that is, the majority of the funds are still in Ethereum, but a small part of the funds will be used to buy new coins, so as to make a small investment for a big gain.

But in fact, there are not many opportunities left for retail investors. Mark is pessimistic. He believes that the cryptocurrency market will tend to be like the US stock market in the future, and mainstream currencies will be dominated by institutional funds, leaving only the Memecoin market for retail investors. But to make money in the Memecoin market, you need to have brains, time, and energy, and these conditions will screen out some unqualified investors. It is highly likely that only 10% of people can make money in the Memecoin market.

Hippo agrees with Mark’s views, but he believes that in addition to mainstream coins and Memecoin, we can also pay attention to some coins derived from transactions.

Because the projects surrounding transactions are useful and cannot be avoided by the market. Since they cannot be avoided, they will survive and it will be easier to reach consensus.

For retail investors, the first thing they need to adjust is their mentality, that is, they need to give up the fantasy of getting rich quickly, Hippo said. In the future, there may not be opportunities for altcoins to increase by dozens or hundreds of times, but there are still opportunities for mainstream coins, with about 3-5 times of growth in each cycle. Then pay attention to Memecoin. There will be new Memecoins in each round. Buying those phenomenal Memecoins will definitely bring you considerable returns.

In the previous round, there were some low-threshold, low-risk money-making projects that were friendly to retail investors, such as new listings and inscriptions, but there are not many opportunities in this round.

Or you can do quantitative trading like me. Although there is a threshold, the risk is still relatively low. Cheng Hua said, In fact, I think the opportunity of Bitcoin is relatively fair to everyone. It depends on whether you can grasp it. Fixed investment is a strategy that I think is relatively easy to execute. As long as the time is extended, there is a high probability that there will be good returns.

Is the cryptocurrency bonus period for retail investors about to end?

In fact, in the last cycle, with the entry of some institutional funds, there were voices saying that it was the last cryptocurrency cycle for retail investors.

Although retail investors are still participating in this bull market, this round of institutionalization is more serious.

The total AUM of Bitcoin spot ETFs reached US$137.4 billion in July 2025, of which more than 400 institutions invested in BlackRock Bitcoin ETF, including traditional giants such as pension funds and sovereign funds.

Global listed companies hold 944,000 BTC, accounting for 4.8% of the circulation, and increased their holdings by about 131,000 in a single quarter.

The scale of ETH liquidity staking (LSD) products on platforms such as Coinbase and Binance has surged, and institutions have packaged ETHs income attributes as fixed-income tools.

The above data all show that the cryptocurrency market is no longer a playground for retail investors to party.

Some media reported that the $120,000 Bitcoin was just a capital feast without retail investors. That day, there were no retail investors swiping the screen to say get rich overnight, only BlackRocks ETF subscription orders of 13 per second were silently rolling.

This scene is exactly what Mark expected. I think the golden age of retail investors making money has passed. It is obvious that the second half of last year may be the last window of opportunity, he said.

In fact, he has already taken profits on part of his funds and switched to A shares.

“But I won’t quit completely. I think the market opportunities for Meme will always be there, and there will be new things coming out,” Mark planned.

Niner is relatively optimistic. She said she will continue to stay in this market because she thinks the opportunities to make big money are increasingly coming to retail investors.

Many people have been talking about the final cycle for a long time. But I think the wild growth period is over, and now is the time for good opportunities to emerge. Niner said, I will not leave, I want to be a real Alpha player.

Hippo is also optimistic. He believes that the market is moving in an orderly and regular direction, which means low risk and high returns for retail investors.

With the entry of institutional funds, as long as you follow the mainstream currency investment, you can still get relatively good returns. The most important thing is that this market is controllable and the risk is much lower. Hippo said, At the low point of the cycle, Bitcoin may retrace 50%-70%, but it will rise several times in the bull market. As long as you keep this rhythm and manage your expectations, investing in mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin may be the easiest money-making project for retail investors.

For Hippo, who has been deeply involved in the cryptocurrency field for 9 years, his relationship with this market is like fish and water – I have become very comfortable in this market and have never thought about leaving. And I think the market opportunities for retail investors are always there.

Perhaps, no matter whether you are an optimist or a pessimist, once you have been immersed in this market, it is difficult for you to leave easily. What is really important is not whether the market gives you opportunities, but to have the learning ability to keep up with the market, the eyes to discover opportunities, and the execution ability to seize opportunities.

This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto narrative in the post-retail era: When the bull market is no longer noisy

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