Behind the $50,000 bet, why is Polygons new coin KAT unpopular?

Asli | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Author | Dingdang ( @XiaMiPP )

Yesterday, Marc Zeller, a core member of the Aave community, posted on X that when an ecosystem derives a second token, the total market value of the two will eventually be lower than the market value of the original token . For example, Katana Network, which will be launched by Polygon after POL, will also issue a new coin, KAT. It is expected that the sum of the market values of the two will be lower than the market value of POL when the Katana plan was announced. This dynamic caused strong dissatisfaction from Polygon Labs CEO Marc Boiron, and the two parties bet $50,000 on the market value performance of POL and KAT in 6 months.

This is not only a bet on market performance, but also a question about Polygons multi-currency strategy, ecological governance concept and even the future direction of DeFi.

Background and strategic intentions of Polygons new coin KAT

Katana Network is the latest strategic project of the Polygon ecosystem, initiated by the Katana Foundation and jointly incubated by Polygon Labs and GSR Pasars. The network is positioned as a private blockchain focused on DeFi scenario optimization, and plans to launch a public mainnet in June 2025, focusing on deeper liquidity integration and more predictable lending rates, with the intention of building a more stable and efficient DeFi lending environment.

Katana was unveiled along with its native token KAT. KAT鈥檚 functions cover two core modules: ecosystem governance and liquidity incentives. Among them, 15% of KAT tokens will be distributed to POL stakers on Ethereum in the form of airdrops, attempting to achieve the linkage between the old and new ecosystems through the original user system, thereby enhancing community stickiness and stabilizing market confidence in Polygon鈥檚 core assets.

The issuance of KAT is an important part of Polygons strategic reorganization. In June this year, Polygon founder Sandeep Nailwal announced that he would personally serve as the CEO of the foundation, marking the full takeover of the ecological strategy. He emphasized that Polygon will gradually abandon zkEVM and focus resources on two directions: one is Polygon PoS, which focuses on stablecoin payments and RWA asset integration; the second is AggLayer, which aims to provide incubation, funds and resources to support the development of projects within its PoS ecosystem. Successful projects will airdrop 5% to 15% of the total supply of their native tokens to POL pledgers and connect to the Agglayer network. This means that Polygon will return to a sustainable growth path rather than relying solely on technology stacking.

Katana and KAT were launched in this context to supplement the increasingly thin DeFi pillar in the Polygon PoS ecosystem, especially after heavyweight protocols such as Aave and Lido withdrew one after another, resulting in the loss of more than $300 million in TVL. The launch of KAT has become an important measure for Polygon to revitalize the ecosystem. Through the issuance of new coins, airdrop incentives and dedicated infrastructure construction, Polygon hopes to reactivate the growth momentum of TVL and attract developers and users to return to the ecosystem.

From a more macro perspective, Polygons move is also a response to the competition in the Layer 2 ecosystem. Under the leadership of modular solutions such as OP Stack and Arbitrum Orbit, Polygon attempts to differentiate itself with its DeFi depth and asset integration capabilities.

The root cause of the conflict between Aave and Polygon

The fuse for the conflict between Polygon and Aave broke out in December 2024, when Polygon proposed a revenue generation proposal, planning to use its more than $1 billion stablecoin assets bridged to the PoS chain for cross-protocol revenue mining.

This proposal has caused fierce opposition in the Aave community. Marc Zeller, a core member of the Aave community, believes that Polygons revenue generation method is too risky and may lead to bad debt problems. Some community members even compare it to the shadow banking model of traditional finance, believing that high-risk operations that are not fully disclosed may threaten the safety of funds.

In response to Polygons proposal, Zeller proposed a risk parameter adjustment proposal on the Aave PoS chain: set the loan value ratio (LTV) of all assets to 0% and increase the reserve ratio to 85%. The proposal was passed with an overwhelming result of 690,000 votes in favor and 117,000 votes against. Aave announced that it would gradually withdraw from the lending market of the Polygon PoS chain.

Polygon Labs CEO Marc Boiron expressed strong dissatisfaction, believing that Aaves withdrawal not only limits the revenue-generating potential of the Polygon ecosystem, but may also weaken the attractiveness of the PoS chain to developers and users, affect the long-term cooperation prospects of both parties, and even have anti-competitive tendencies.

Subsequently, Aave co-founder Stani posted a clarification on X, saying that Aaves move was not to oppose Polygon or hinder its development, but out of responsibility for the safety of user funds. He pointed out that Polygon introduced high-risk proposals without communicating with the cooperation agreement, deviating from the principle of openness and transparency that DeFi should have, and failed to provide effective protection for potential bad debts. The two sides launched a fierce confrontation over proposal risks, asset control rights, and the boundaries of governance power. On the surface, it was a dispute over the agreement, but in essence it was a collision between governance concepts and cooperation mechanisms.

Lebih-lebih lagi, Lido also announced the termination of the Polygon PoS chain staking service in December 2024 , citing reasons including low user adoption, insufficient incentives, and uncertainty in ecological development. Users need to withdraw funds before June 16, 2025. This move further weakens the DeFi ecosystem of the Polygon PoS chain.

Pada saat yang sama, a trust crisis also emerged within Polygon . Following Jaynti Kanani and Anurag Arjun, the third co-founder Mihailo Bjelic announced his withdrawal from the foundations board of directors. In his statement, he said, As the project develops, it is natural for the vision to change and even diverge. I can no longer contribute to Polygon in the best state, indicating that there are different opinions on the new strategy within the company.

Conclusion: Behind the gambling game is a contest of trust

KAT is not the end of Polygon, but a test for it to reshape the DeFi narrative.

From an opportunity perspective, the liquidity integration and predictable interest rate mechanism advocated by Katana Network do respond to the core demands of the current DeFi market for stable returns and risk control. If successful, KAT will become a new growth engine for the Polygon ecosystem, injecting new vitality into the PoS chain and attracting a new round of developers.

But the risks are also obvious. The issuance of KAT may dilute the value of the original POL, especially when the dual-token ecological governance mechanism has not yet been clarified, which may cause users and developers to feel uncertain about governance rights and incentive mechanisms, further exacerbating the wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

The reason why this incident attracted attention is not just because of the $50,000 bet, but because it reflects the most fragile nerves of the current kripto ecosystem: trust between protocols, transparency of community governance, and the boundaries of user asset security.

Whether KAT can support the new narrative remains to be tested by time. But what is certain is that the future prosperity of the crypto world cannot be maintained by market value leaps alone, but is built on the basis of honest collaboration between protocols, open governance and user trust.

This article is sourced from the internet: Behind the $50,000 bet, why is Polygons new coin KAT unpopular?

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